Steve Jobs may or may not announce a new iPhone today and that’s important but it almost does not matter because the real power of the iPhone is the SDK and apps that get built on it. Apple has effectively turned the iPhone into a developer platform and that has a tremendous multiplier effect on the value of the device to consumers. Even if Apple did not announce a new iPhone, the platform play alone will drive users to the device. It also has a great lock-in effect as developers will want to develop for the platform with the most users. Michael Gartenberg makes the point well here.
I still think Apple will introduce a new iPhone today (contrary to my earlier opinion) but it’s really the platform that matters. I am sticking by my earlier prediction that Apple will segment their iPhone line-up and have essentially a vanilla version (ala Macbook) and a nicer version (ala Macbook Pro).
